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How to Win (or at least not Lose) in Qi: Living Energy

Monday, November 16th, 2009


Probability Mechanics behind the FastDraw System.

For sometime I have has players that say unusual things while playing Qi.  “Yeah I’m at a 1 point Disadvantage that’s right where I need to be” or “down 2? Great, that’s the sweet spot”, are not uncommon.  Some players actually take penalties just to get rid of the Advantage.  Does this strategy work, other than the desire to be the heroic underdog?  The answer is sometimes.  Let’s explore the mechanics behind the FastDraw bidding system.

First, every character has a Bid comprised of the total of their Skill and the Statistic it is based on.  That Bid is in most cases between 1 and 10, with 1 representing an untrained ability and no aptitude and a 10 for a total mastery of the ability. Can Bids go beyond 10?  Yes, using the proper tools, taking additional time or even supernatural levels of skill can take the Bid above 10 and make even impossible tasks child’s play. When two opposing Bids are compared, the difference between them is the points of Advantage.  If your Bid is greater than the other Bid, you have the Advantage.  If not, you are at Disadvantage.  When at Disadvantage your draw number must meet or exceed the total of your opponent’s draw number and the points of Advantage they have in the test.  The Advantage can range from a +5 Advantage or Overbid down to a -5 Disadvantage where your opponent Overbids you. It never gets better or worse than that, just +/-5.  The test then moves on to the draw, where each player “draws” a number between 0 and 5.  If the total of the draw numbers is 5 it is a “Critical Successes” assigned to the player with the lowest draw number. If the draw numbers match (1&1, 2&2, 3&3,…) the player at Disadvantage wins.

That is the system but how does all this compare in game play?  How does the math really work behind it?  OK, here goes…

With each player able to Draw a number between 0 and 5, there a 6 options for each player.  With 2 players there are 36 possible permutations (62). For each permutation there is 6 possible levels of Advantage, 0 to +5, the only thing that changes is if the player is Advantaged or Disadvantaged, but the number of possible results is the same, 216.

Of those 216 possibilities;

6 are Matching Draws at 0 Advantage (a Stalemate).

30 are Matching Draws with an Advantage (Disadvantaged player wins these).

18 are Critical Successes for the Disadvantaged player.

18 are Critical Successes for the Advantaged player.

Of the remainder there are

38 are Wins for the Disadvantaged player.

106 are Wins for the Advantaged player.

Overall, there are 124 Advantage player solutions or 57.4% of the time, 86 Disadvantaged player solutions or 39.8% of the time and 6 Stalemate solutions or 2.8%.

Great math, but I bet your still asking how do I win.  The trick is in shifting toward the most favorable advantage position that limits your odds of losing.  In addition to the odds of a Stalemate where nothing happens, the chances of success or failure are not linear in the FastDraw system.

winpercent

From -5 to -1, a players odds of winning rise sharply from 25% to 58%, so yes there is a better chance of success at -1 than at 0, +1, or +2.  The player would have to push the advantage to +3 to increase their odds of winning over 58%.  Many maneuvers allow you to add a +1 or +2 as well as the +1 bonus of each additional attacker.  Here is what we refer to as “The Bat Wing”, a chart of the percentage change in the chance of success between the different levels of Advantage.

changetowin

At a 0 Advantage, it is not that you have a better chance to lose, it is that you are so evenly matched that neither you nor your opponent can win, i.e., a Stalemate. At +1 the Stalemate percentage becomes the probability that the Disadvantaged player can match your draw number, 1 in 6.  From there the odds of success rise again but note how the percentage change in success drops again sharply between 3 and five. This is an effort to prevent players from being completely blown out by high-end advantages.

The key is to use maneuvers and modifiers to push your advantage around the “survival zone” between 0 and +2.  Having backup can increase your odds by as much as 11%.  You can use many of the maneuvers including grapple and sweep to shift into or out of the “survival zone” or just hold your opponent in that zone until your buddies show up to push you to +3.  Remember no matter how bad the opponent is the odds are never worse than 1 in 4.

For example, say you are at a -3 against an opponent.  Your odds are better than 1 in 3 or 36%.  If you take the opportunity to Defend (+1 cumulative) for a round instead of attacking, your odds increase to almost 1 to 1, 47%.  Do it again and you have a 58% chance to hit.  Or try a Sweep maneuver and your opponent is -2 (for Prone) and your are +1, a total of +3 in a single round.  Maybe you find yourself stuck in a Stalemate, backhand your opponent with your off-hand.  It takes you to a -1 Disadvantage but your odds go up almost 17%.  Also remember, you are not required to Bid your full ability.  Pull your punches and save a few points, especially in the initial engagement.  When your opponent tries to maneuver to get the +1 Advantage, you can raise your bid after the draw (as long as you actually have the points) and turn the tables on them.  What other RPG lets you Rope-a-Dope?

Bidding and Draw strategy is not about min-maxing and dealing your max damage as fast as possible.  It’s about maneuvering, taking the advantage, exploiting opportunities, and being the last one standing.  Grapple to reduce your opponent’s options.  Sweep them to the ground and run away.  Fastdraw your opponent’s gun when they get in your face.  Throw people at other people or Disarm them when they rely too heavily on their really cool toys. Take cover, use suppressive fire, and take time to aim and pick your shots. Sometimes it pays to fight smarter not harder.

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Why I wrote Qi: Living Energy

Thursday, September 17th, 2009

In 1994 I saw a need for a change in the role playing industry. It was a golden age and a new style of game was emerging. Live Action Role Playing or LARP, was becoming increasingly popular and the explosion of the internet age was underway. But I felt that the industry was still missing the mark. The market was flooded with small independent game systems from both indie publishers and leading names in the business. There was no shortage of different game mechanics or disparate environments or worlds to play in, but the industry seemed to be chaotic. It was growing more like a cancer than a sustainable enterprise. It was then that I decided to go another way.
Looking over my own experience with role playing and I decided to strip away all of the old conventions, find what worked, what didn’t, and keep only what was need. I reviewed old systems that I had quit playing and why, mechanics and rules that I had rewritten, and core mechanics that I found limiting. In several systems, your actions are reduced to waiting for your turn to swing your +5 weapon of Incredible Badness, rolling some dice and waiting again. In other systems, the dice themselves were a problem, from huge quantities needed or the substitution of other methods of random resolution that had all the variety of rock-paper-scissors.
Also most RPG publishers seemed to have a ‘publish or perish’ mentality. They write a core rulebook, write some more books to fill in the world background with more rules in them, and write some sample adventure books. When they run out of ideas, they revise the core rules and start the process over again. This leaves the player with a stack of antiquated books and a collection that will never be complete for all their effort and years of loyalty. Most of us write reams of our own material anyway, from world background and house rules, to adventures, character backgrounds, and NPC’s. These are also made obsolete by the new editions that the big boys keep cranking out.
I set out to write a system of my own that would unify all of the good things about role playing games. It would be truly universal, able to crossover the boundary from traditional tabletop gaming to LARP with a single set of rules. Experience would not be lost when a new character is built but be assigned to the one who earned it, the Player themselves. This pool of experience would be used to balance the group of players while still providing an advantage to those who have been playing longer.
The need for random resolution would be replaced with a system that let you attempt to outwit your opponent, where the character’s destiny was not only in the hands of the static numbers on a page and a roll of the dice but also the skill of the player. Combat actions would focus on maneuvers that allowed the player tactical control of the situation beyond the ‘I swing again’ phenomenon and allow them real options beyond where to move on the map. Combat would become a thinking man’s game. Action scenes would be as much like real combat as possible; fast, dangerous, and wherever possible simultaneous. No more would the action start and the less combat capable player’s adjourn to hit the snacks, knowing it will be a while until it hits ‘their turn’. Combat would finally be played as it exists in the real world, a fluid experience in barely controlled chaos. Adversaries would move about at the same time jockeying for position. Large scale battles would be just as fast and dangerous as small skirmishes. Quick thinking and superior tactics would stand against bigger numbers and better weaponry to win the day.
Most importantly it would be about the role play. The system would reinforce the ability to take on a persona without grinding down into a mathematical mechanical nightmare. Players would vote anonymously and democratically on who they enjoyed role playing with the most, who developed a Reputation, for good or bad deeds, and for what they would be known. The effort and actions of the players would be rewarded for developing the world, their characters, and the role playing experience for the group. The ‘fun’ factor would be more than it’s own reward, it would be a contest in itself. The experience award would be given by the group to the player who strives to be involved and to involve others, who challenges others to role play at the highest level, and entertains and engages the group the most.
With Qi: Living Energy I believe we have accomplished all of these things and more. We have developed a system where the core mechanics are simple but can be applied in anyway the players want, from dice to playing cards, to hand signals. Qi is designed from the ground up to take advantage of the internet and focuses on developing the role playing community over producing a catalogue. It is designed to grow in an organic way and allow players to share experiences, ideas, and the work that they have put in to their own game worlds and adventure episodes. It allows them to develop powers, abilities, and technologies to fit their own games or to get ideas by looking at the work of others. It provides the tools for players to harness their own talents and make role playing easier and more fun for all of us. Role playing was never about the books or dice, it was about the stories we tell and the fun we have with friends while doing it.

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